What a Trump Presidency could herald for the world
Opinion
If Donald Trump's popularity is an indicator, it appears he will win the forthcoming election. The American Presidency usually has implications for the world. While prediction is always risky business, I try to preview what might unfold.
This is a big topic. To keep it within a short post length, I’ll focus on three aspects: Global politics, global economy, and making America great again.
Politics
The Biden administration came in just after the pandemic had peaked. It wasted little time before entering global politics. The disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan was just being digested when US instigations in Ukraine culminated in a war. Last year, USA found itself back in the Middle East, pitted against Iran, once friendly country turned into an enemy by USA’s support of Saddam, with whom they would have two other wars afterwards! This year, the overthrow of an elected government in Bangladesh, credited to USA, ensured a 100% record of one conflict per year.
In stark contrast, Trump’s Presidency from 2016–2020, marked perhaps the only term in over a century where USA had not entered a global conflict proactively. Trump's shrewdness in business was also evident in his handling of international affairs, where he promoted the America First agenda assertively without seeming entirely unreasonable.
If I deconstruct his foreign policy, Trump seems to have divided key global and strategic players into a simple yet powerful matrix, with economic and military prowess as the axes. For example, high military, low economy etc. This classification then dictates the degree of co-operation or competition. Importantly, the competition is almost always “economic” and never military (unless required — an implicit threat he keeps in reserve).
With the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan and with NATO exposed as an illusory alliance where everyone is relying on everyone else to fight, there is little fear of American military now. Direct military involvement is a lower chance now, but indirect warfare, via sanctions and fermenting internal strife, as we’ve seen under this administration, is a bigger concern.
In his election campaigns, Trump has repeated said he’ll end the Ukraine conflict and avoid WW3. Based on his previous record, there is good reason to believe him. With Trump's approach, nations worldwide might feel reassured, understanding that despite his America First policy, the likelihood of overt conflict is starkly lower compared to the current administration, with a slim chance of covert operations as well.
The Democratic campaign appears to be primarily anti-Trump, while Trump's campaign is more complex, addressing a variety of issues. It seems that the Trump Administration may have little interest in engaging in conflicts, whether overt or covert. While one can never be certain about the lobby pressures that a President may yield to; a Trump Presidency is bound to be less agitated than the one it will replace?!
Summary: No US created global war(s) should be the baseline expectation. Ideally, the dissolution of NATO and a withdrawal from the failed UNO would also set a marker, although I don’t think this time around, an older Trump will have the appetite for such radical actions.
Economy
The election will have pivotal impact on global economics. America is in economic decline. Another Democrat government will be the final nail in the coffin. With an economic behemoth eliminated, a new world order can come about. A Trump Presidency can slow this decline and keep America relevant for a bit longer.
The main talking point here is tariffs, a favoured bargaining tool for Trump. Even in this campaign, he’s talked about them. Tariffs will be good from an American perspective. As one of the largest trading partners of most countries, USA will have considerable leverage in this arena.
While both events present a challenge, if tariffs can start a move away from globalization and towards self-sufficiency, it will be a beneficial long-term shift, for everyone actually.
A new world order is the great unknown. Globalization meanwhile is the evil we know. Post pandemic, many countries are grappling with recession, unemployment and high cost of living. Most are net importers, which has obvious risks. Then there is climate change consideration of so many ships, with some very bad human conditions, constantly going around.
For every country in the world to succeed equitably and sustainably, globalization must end. Meaningful change can only start with the biggest player — USA. Under Trump, there is hope that the socio-economic colonialism wrought by globalism, could start to end, even if it’s in USA’s interest to do so now.
There are other economic issues like low interest rates, inflation, the $7.6 trillion debt (which America can basically never repay), US dollar as reserve currency, digital currencies etc. It’s not clear how much Trump will be able to influence these seemingly inevitable trends.
Summary: The basic expectation involves tariff debates and a slight postponement in the establishment a new world order. Beyond that, nothing is certain.
America
Trump talked about removing taxes on over time, building better cities, raising healthy families (via RFK Jr), better education, war on drugs, bringing back manufacturing etc. It’s heartening to see the American President campaign on issues that will benefit Americans. Normally, the key elements of the campaign are foreign policy (mostly about countries American cannot locate on map) or rhetorical debates on emotionally charged topics like gun control or abortion.
It’s about time that someone running for American President focussed on their own country. They need it. A President who is busy internally is good for the world. It means less interference in other countries’ affairs. America is still the world’s leading research, science and technology hub. An internally focussed President will no doubt encourage these, which will benefit America — and the world.
Summary: Under Trump, I think America will be in for socio-economic revival, away from the divisive politics of the Democrats.
Extrapolating from Trump’s campaign, it seems that his policies can catalyze some important and beneficial changes in the world. A non-interventionist, non-globalist, inward-looking world leader is just what every country needs from America, and indeed from every other country in the world.
Mind your own business. Make [your country] Great Again. In this world full of information overload, strife and interference, this has to be universal mantra for governments.
Trump has already given what is perhaps the greatest political marketing slogan of this century. If his Presidency can combine MAGA with MYOB, it might be the most transformational one yet, for America, and the world.
